If you've been following the real estate news cycle, you might assume Toronto's market has collapsed. Headlines have been dramatic, often overshadowing what's truly happening. While developers face one of the slowest new-construction sales periods in modern history, resale properties continue to trade, and serious buyers and sellers are still active.
In September, only 53 new-build condo units sold in the City of Toronto - a number so low it barely registers statistically. It reflects a bigger trend: pre-construction activity has slowed to a crawl. Yet the resale market tells a very different story. Buyers are negotiating, sellers are adjusting, and transactions are occurring at a steady, realistic pace.
This contrast is reshaping the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate landscape. Let's examine the numbers, the trends, and what it means for the years ahead.
The New-Construction Market: A Standstill
According to the latest Altus Group data, new-build activity has sharply declined.
Single-family homes
New-build condos
On paper, this looks like severe weakness - and for builders, it is. Developers have paused launches, pulled projects, and in some cases halted sites that previously secured presales. The pipeline for new supply in coming years is shrinking as a result. If fewer projects start now, fewer homes will complete later, creating future inventory pressures.
This matters not just for investors but for housing policy, affordability, and long-term supply.
A Decade's Context: From Peak to Pause
It's useful to zoom out. Over the past 10 years, pre-construction demand has fluctuated sharply. The long-term average for annual new-build sales in the GTA sits around:
During the pandemic boom, the market surged far beyond those averages - especially in 2021 and 2022, when developers doubled typical sales volumes. Many of those units are just beginning to reach completion now.
Today, however, activity is well below the 10-year norm. Developers and buyers moved from extremes - a frenzy followed by a freeze.
Why New Condos Aren't Selling
A key reason for the slowdown is price. New-build condos average over $1M, making them roughly 40–50% more expensive than resale units. Combine that with:
And the conclusion is clear: buyers see better value in the resale market today.
Resale Market: Quiet but Active
While new construction stalls, resale homes are still changing hands.
Resale condos
The gap between new and resale pricing is now so wide that end-users and investors are choosing existing homes. Resale buyers are prioritizing space, location, and value - with many finding larger layouts in buildings completed before the recent trend toward micro-units.
As affordability pressures persist, practical purchasing decisions are guiding the market.
What This Means Moving Forward
The GTA market is split into two realities:
1. New construction is in a deep freeze
Projects are delayed, launches postponed, and sales volumes remain historically low. This will limit future supply and could eventually create renewed price pressure once demand returns.
2. Resale housing continues at a measured pace
Buyers and sellers are adjusting expectations, meeting closer on price, and moving forward. The market feels cautious, but functional.
This split is unusual, but markets often find balance through periods like this. The slowdown in development is painful today - yet it sets the stage for constraints and competition in coming years unless policy, financing, or demand conditions shift materially.
What we're seeing today is not a collapse - it's a recalibration. New-build supply is pausing as buyers shift attention to resale opportunities. Pricing consistency in the resale segments suggests confidence hasn't disappeared, only evolved.
Real estate cycles do not move in a straight line. Trends accelerate, overshoot, correct, and stabilize. Today's conditions are part of that ongoing adjustment.
Whether you're a homeowner, investor, or someone watching from the sidelines, the key takeaway is this: the market is moving - just differently across segments.
There are challenges ahead, especially regarding future supply. But there are also opportunities for those prepared, informed, and strategic.
In September, only 53 new-build condo units sold in the City of Toronto - a number so low it barely registers statistically. It reflects a bigger trend: pre-construction activity has slowed to a crawl. Yet the resale market tells a very different story. Buyers are negotiating, sellers are adjusting, and transactions are occurring at a steady, realistic pace.
This contrast is reshaping the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate landscape. Let's examine the numbers, the trends, and what it means for the years ahead.
The New-Construction Market: A Standstill
According to the latest Altus Group data, new-build activity has sharply declined.
Single-family homes
- September sales down 60% year over year
- Year-to-date sales 43% lower than 2024
- Benchmark price: $1.437M
New-build condos
- 155 sales in September across the GTA, down 44% year over year
- Over 15,000 units currently available
- Benchmark price: $1.033M
On paper, this looks like severe weakness - and for builders, it is. Developers have paused launches, pulled projects, and in some cases halted sites that previously secured presales. The pipeline for new supply in coming years is shrinking as a result. If fewer projects start now, fewer homes will complete later, creating future inventory pressures.
This matters not just for investors but for housing policy, affordability, and long-term supply.
A Decade's Context: From Peak to Pause
It's useful to zoom out. Over the past 10 years, pre-construction demand has fluctuated sharply. The long-term average for annual new-build sales in the GTA sits around:
- 6,700 single-family homes
- 14,300 condos
During the pandemic boom, the market surged far beyond those averages - especially in 2021 and 2022, when developers doubled typical sales volumes. Many of those units are just beginning to reach completion now.
Today, however, activity is well below the 10-year norm. Developers and buyers moved from extremes - a frenzy followed by a freeze.
Why New Condos Aren't Selling
A key reason for the slowdown is price. New-build condos average over $1M, making them roughly 40–50% more expensive than resale units. Combine that with:
- Smaller average floor plans in new towers
- Higher monthly carrying costs
- Investors facing tougher financing conditions
- Assignment sellers trying to exit before closing
And the conclusion is clear: buyers see better value in the resale market today.
Resale Market: Quiet but Active
While new construction stalls, resale homes are still changing hands.
Resale condos
- 961 sales in September 2025 (up 6% year over year)
- Average selling price: $680,000
- Prices have risen modestly month-over-month since summer
The gap between new and resale pricing is now so wide that end-users and investors are choosing existing homes. Resale buyers are prioritizing space, location, and value - with many finding larger layouts in buildings completed before the recent trend toward micro-units.
As affordability pressures persist, practical purchasing decisions are guiding the market.
What This Means Moving Forward
The GTA market is split into two realities:
1. New construction is in a deep freeze
Projects are delayed, launches postponed, and sales volumes remain historically low. This will limit future supply and could eventually create renewed price pressure once demand returns.
2. Resale housing continues at a measured pace
Buyers and sellers are adjusting expectations, meeting closer on price, and moving forward. The market feels cautious, but functional.
This split is unusual, but markets often find balance through periods like this. The slowdown in development is painful today - yet it sets the stage for constraints and competition in coming years unless policy, financing, or demand conditions shift materially.
What we're seeing today is not a collapse - it's a recalibration. New-build supply is pausing as buyers shift attention to resale opportunities. Pricing consistency in the resale segments suggests confidence hasn't disappeared, only evolved.
Real estate cycles do not move in a straight line. Trends accelerate, overshoot, correct, and stabilize. Today's conditions are part of that ongoing adjustment.
Whether you're a homeowner, investor, or someone watching from the sidelines, the key takeaway is this: the market is moving - just differently across segments.
There are challenges ahead, especially regarding future supply. But there are also opportunities for those prepared, informed, and strategic.
